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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Mirassol run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Bahia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Bahia 5-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.26 xG and Bahia 1.11 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.14 / defence 1.06 against Bahia attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 40% | Draw 28% | Bahia 32%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 42%, Bahia 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Bahia's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.68 PPG, Bahia 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights