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Juventude cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vitoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventude beat Vitoria 2-0 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.38 xG and Vitoria 1.24 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vitoria landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against Vitoria attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 40% | Draw 27% | Vitoria 34%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 53%, Vitoria 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Vitoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventude 1.18 PPG, Vitoria 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Vitoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights