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Juventude cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vasco DA Gama.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventude beat Vasco DA Gama 2-0 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.32 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.60 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.45 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 32% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 44%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Juventude win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 54%, Vasco DA Gama 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventude's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventude 1.07 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights