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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juventude cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventude beat Sport Recife 2-0 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.42 xG and Sport Recife 0.76 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Sport Recife attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 52% | Draw 28% | Sport Recife 20%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 46%, Sport Recife 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventude's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.

Sport Recife's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Juventude arrived the stronger side — 0.73 PPG against 0.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights