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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juventude and Mirassol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 5, as Juventude and Mirassol drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.68 xG and Mirassol 0.82 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mirassol outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Mirassol attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 55% | Draw 30% | Mirassol 15%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights