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Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat Juventude 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortaleza EC beat Juventude 1-2 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.54 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.86 / defence 1.10 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 49% | Draw 26% | Fortaleza EC 25%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 49%, Fortaleza EC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventude's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventude 1.08 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights