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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juventude and Fluminense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 9, as Juventude and Fluminense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.40 xG and Fluminense 1.06 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.97 / defence 1.17 against Fluminense attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 44% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 28%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 53%, Fluminense 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventude 1.18 PPG, Fluminense 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights