Juventude 1-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventude at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventude vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and Fluminense meet at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Juventude (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Juventude at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Fluminense away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Juventude against 1.60 for Fluminense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juventude lead 3W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Juventude winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Juventude — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fluminense — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 71% versus Fluminense 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 53% | Fluminense 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.40 xG and Fluminense 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.971 / defence 1.169 | Fluminense attack 1.086 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 0.835. Data: 46 Juventude games / 46 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 44% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 28%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Fluminense 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 80% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 44% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Juventude 1.40 / Fluminense 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.971 / def 1.169 | Fluminense attack 1.086 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.442 / away 0.835 • Poisson stance: Juventude (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Fluminense xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Fluminense kick off?
Juventude vs Fluminense kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Fluminense?
Juventude 1 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Juventude vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Fluminense part of?
Juventude vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 44% chance of winning, Fluminense a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Juventude and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fluminense?
Record (6 meetings): Juventude 3W | Draws 2 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Juventude and Fluminense in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.97) and Fluminense's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (1.09x) against Juventude's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.51
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.46
1.06
Fluminense xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Juventude and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Juventude and 1.06 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 12D 15L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 12W 10D 16L from 38 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Juventude against 1.21 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 5W 2D 12L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventude are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 0.87 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Fluminense away?
Juventude's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.58 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Juventude or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Fluminense in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 4-0 on 28 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Juventude
3
Draws
2
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fluminense?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, Fluminense have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2025, when Fluminense 1-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Fluminense?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 63%, Fluminense 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Juventude) and 26% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Fluminense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Juventude's recent matches and 32% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Juventude's recent games and 26% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Fluminense tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and Fluminense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 9, as Juventude and Fluminense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.40 xG and Fluminense 1.06 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.97 / defence 1.17 against Fluminense attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 44% | Draw 28% | Fluminense 28%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 53%, Fluminense 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.18 PPG, Fluminense 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.