Juventude 1-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Cuiaba travel to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to take on Juventude. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Juventude — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juventude's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juventude 1.00 PPG, Cuiaba 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Cuiaba have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Juventude.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Cuiaba have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Juventude trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Cuiaba trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 71% versus Cuiaba 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 53% | Cuiaba 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.21 xG and Cuiaba 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.025 / defence 1.477 | Cuiaba attack 0.674 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 0.985. Data: 34 Juventude games / 72 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 41% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 30%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Cuiaba 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 80% | Cuiaba 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 41% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Juventude 1.21 / Cuiaba 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.025 / def 1.477 | Cuiaba attack 0.674 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.329 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Juventude (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cuiaba xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Cuiaba kick off?
Juventude vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Juventude 1 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Juventude vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Cuiaba part of?
Juventude vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 41% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Juventude and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Cuiaba?
Record (5 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 2 | Cuiaba 3W.
What form are Juventude and Cuiaba in?
Juventude (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juventude's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.46
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.19
0.98
Cuiaba xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Juventude and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Juventude and 0.98 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 11D 14L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Cuiaba's form line: 6W 11D 17L from 34 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.12 PPG, Cuiaba on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 3W 6D 8L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventude are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.76 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 9W 11D 14L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 6W 11D 17L in their last 34 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Cuiaba away?
Juventude's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.71 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventude and Cuiaba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Juventude's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Juventude
3
Draws
3
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventude have won 0, Cuiaba have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Juventude 1-1 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 65%, Cuiaba 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Juventude) and 35% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Juventude's recent matches and 35% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Juventude's recent games and 35% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and Cuiaba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude and Cuiaba finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.21 xG and Cuiaba 0.98 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.02 / defence 1.48 against Cuiaba attack 0.67 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 41% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 30%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 53%, Cuiaba 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Cuiaba's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.12 PPG, Cuiaba 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.