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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juventude and Cruzeiro share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 34, as Juventude and Cruzeiro drew 3-3 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.61 xG and Cruzeiro 1.05 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cruzeiro outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.77 / defence 1.14 against Cruzeiro attack 0.94 / defence 0.57, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 21% | Draw 33% | Cruzeiro 46%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 49%, Cruzeiro 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventude's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Cruzeiro's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cruzeiro arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights