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Prediction vindicated as Juventude edge out Corinthians 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventude beat Corinthians 2-1 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.09 xG and Corinthians 0.86 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Corinthians attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 40% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 28%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 52%, Corinthians 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventude's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Corinthians's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventude 1.04 PPG, Corinthians 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights