Juventude 2-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Juventude at 40%, yet in-form Corinthians provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juventude vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventude host Corinthians at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 12 August 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Juventude have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Juventude are significantly better at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Corinthians — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Corinthians have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Corinthians's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Juventude's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Juventude, 1 for Corinthians and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Juventude in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 59% versus Corinthians 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 52% | Corinthians 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.09 xG and Corinthians 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.874 / defence 1.012 | Corinthians attack 0.827 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.032. Data: 54 Juventude games / 56 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 40% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 28%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Corinthians 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Corinthians (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 40% | Corinthians 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Aug 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 40% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Juventude 1.09 / Corinthians 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.874 / def 1.012 | Corinthians attack 0.827 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Juventude (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Corinthians xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Corinthians kick off?
Juventude vs Corinthians kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 12 August 2025 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Corinthians?
Juventude 2 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Juventude vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Corinthians part of?
Juventude vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 40% chance of winning, Corinthians a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Juventude and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Corinthians?
Record (6 meetings): Juventude 2W | Draws 3 | Corinthians 1W.
What form are Juventude and Corinthians in?
Juventude (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Corinthians (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juventude's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Corinthians's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
40%
2.49
32%
3.16
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.95
0.86
Corinthians xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Juventude and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Juventude and 0.86 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventude's recent record stands at 14W 14D 26L from 54 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 17L across 54 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.04 PPG, Corinthians on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 11W 8D 8L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Corinthians's away record stands at 6W 7D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Corinthians's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.31 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 14W 14D 26L in their last 54 games (1.04 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 20W 17D 17L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Corinthians away?
Juventude's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.52 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Juventude's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Juventude
4
Draws
1
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Corinthians?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, Corinthians have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Corinthians 1-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Corinthians?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 56%, Corinthians 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Juventude) and 37% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Corinthians in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Juventude's recent matches and 41% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Juventude's recent games and 37% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Corinthians tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventude edge out Corinthians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Corinthians 2-1 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.09 xG and Corinthians 0.86 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Corinthians attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 40% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 28%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 52%, Corinthians 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Corinthians's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.04 PPG, Corinthians 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.