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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Juventude.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Juventude 1-3 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 0.71 xG and Botafogo 1.07 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Botafogo outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.98 / defence 0.84 against Botafogo attack 1.14 / defence 0.56, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventude 24% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 44%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 54%, Botafogo 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventude's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Botafogo's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights