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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Vitoria 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Internacional beat Vitoria 1-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.26 xG and Vitoria 0.88 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vitoria landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Vitoria attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 44% | Draw 31% | Vitoria 25%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 42%, Vitoria 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Vitoria's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Internacional 1.52 PPG, Vitoria 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Vitoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights