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Internacional cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Internacional beat Sport Recife 2-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.67 xG and Sport Recife 0.84 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sport Recife landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Sport Recife attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 57% | Draw 24% | Sport Recife 19%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 48%, Sport Recife 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Sport Recife's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.63. Form held, and they took the win. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights