🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Sao Paulo defy the odds to beat Internacional 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sao Paulo beat Internacional 1-2 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.18 xG and Sao Paulo 0.82 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sao Paulo outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.94 / defence 0.87 against Sao Paulo attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 43% | Draw 32% | Sao Paulo 25%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Sao Paulo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 41%, Sao Paulo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Sao Paulo's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Internacional 1.59 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights