Internacional 1-3 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio Beira-Rio to face Internacional in Serie A (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 00:30 UK time.
Form
Internacional (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Internacional at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Internacional are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Palmeiras are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Internacional's last 10 home games and Palmeiras's last 10 away games) — Internacional have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Palmeiras in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Internacional, 4 for Palmeiras and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Internacional 1–4 Palmeiras — a Palmeiras win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Internacional — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 58% versus Palmeiras 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 46% | Palmeiras 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Internacional surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Palmeiras have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.26 xG and Palmeiras 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.847 / defence 0.993 | Palmeiras attack 1.235 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.140. Palmeiras have an above-average attack rating of 1.235, which lifts their away xG to 1.40. Data: built from Internacional's last 40 games and Palmeiras's last 40.
Result probabilities: Internacional 34% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 40%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.95 | Draw 3.85 | Palmeiras 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though recent form (Internacional's last 10 home games and Palmeiras's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Internacional 70% (last 10 home games) | Palmeiras 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, matchday 3 | Venue: Estádio Beira-Rio • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 34% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Internacional 1.26 / Palmeiras 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.847 / def 0.993 | Palmeiras attack 1.235 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Palmeiras xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Internacional vs Palmeiras FAQs
What time does Internacional vs Palmeiras kick off?
Internacional vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Internacional 1 - 3 Palmeiras.
Where is Internacional vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What competition is Internacional vs Palmeiras part of?
Internacional vs Palmeiras is a Serie A fixture (matchday 3) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 34% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Internacional and Palmeiras will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Internacional vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Internacional's attack at 0.85x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.24x) against Internacional's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Internacional's last 40 games and Palmeiras's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
34%
2.95
26%
3.85
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.66
1.40
Palmeiras xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Internacional vs Palmeiras Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Internacional and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Internacional and 1.40 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Internacional have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 29W 22D 25L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 45W 14D 17L from 76 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Internacional.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Internacional have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 38 home games (19W 11D 8L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 21W 7D 10L from their last 38 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Internacional are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.66 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
Internacional (Home) vs Palmeiras (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Internacional
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Internacional vs Palmeiras Form FAQs
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 29W 22D 25L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.79 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Internacional or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Internacional and Palmeiras, the earliest from July 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won Internacional 3-0 Palmeiras on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Internacional
3
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Internacional vs Palmeiras H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Internacional have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Palmeiras last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Palmeiras 0-0 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 58%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Internacional) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Palmeiras in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Internacional vs Palmeiras Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Internacional and Palmeiras matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Internacional's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Internacional and Palmeiras matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Internacional's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Palmeiras matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Internacional's recent matches and 71% of Palmeiras's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Internacional.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Internacional 1-3 at Estádio Beira-Rio, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.26 xG and Palmeiras 1.40 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.85 / defence 0.99 against Palmeiras attack 1.24 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 34% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 40%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 46%, Palmeiras 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.