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Internacional and Mirassol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 9, as Internacional and Mirassol drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.76 xG and Mirassol 0.72 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.13 / defence 0.91 against Mirassol attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 61% | Draw 25% | Mirassol 14%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights