Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Internacional at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Internacional vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Mirassol travel to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to take on Internacional. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 May 2025, 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Internacional — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Internacional have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.76 xG and Mirassol 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.128 / defence 0.912 | Mirassol attack 0.949 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 0.833. Data: 46 Internacional games / 8 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 61% | Draw 25% | Mirassol 14%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Mirassol 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Internacional (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Monday 19 May 2025, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Internacional (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Internacional home split: 2.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | CS 5
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 61% | Draw 25% | Mirassol 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG Internacional 1.76 / Mirassol 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.128 / def 0.912 | Mirassol attack 0.949 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.421 / away 0.833 • Poisson stance: Internacional (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Mirassol xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Mirassol kick off?
Internacional vs Mirassol kicked off at 00:30 on Monday 19 May 2025 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Mirassol?
Internacional 1 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Internacional vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Mirassol part of?
Internacional vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 61% chance of winning, Mirassol a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Internacional and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Mirassol?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Internacional and Mirassol in?
• Internacional (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L • Internacional home split: 2.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | CS 5
What do the betting odds say about Internacional vs Mirassol?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture