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Internacional cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juventude.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Internacional beat Juventude 3-1 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 2.25 xG and Juventude 0.68 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Juventude attack 0.87 / defence 1.45, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Internacional 71% | Draw 21% | Juventude 8%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 45%, Juventude 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Internacional's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights