Internacional 0-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Internacional face Gremio.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Internacional welcome Gremio to Estádio Beira-Rio in Serie A (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 12 April 2026 at 00:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Internacional stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Internacional's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Internacional are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Gremio have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Gremio's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Internacional 0.90 PPG, Gremio 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Internacional's games and 60% of Gremio's (from Internacional's last 10 home games and Gremio's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Internacional have won 4, Gremio 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Internacional 2–3 Gremio — a Gremio win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Internacional trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Gremio trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 58% versus Gremio 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 46% | Gremio 43%). Note also that Gremio surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Internacional recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.30 xG and Gremio 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.813 / defence 1.043 | Gremio attack 0.966 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.030. Data: built from Internacional's last 48 games and Gremio's last 48.
Result probabilities: Internacional 42% | Draw 29% | Gremio 29%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.37 | Draw 3.50 | Gremio 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Internacional's last 10 home games and Gremio's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Internacional 70% (last 10 home games) | Gremio 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 11 | Venue: Estádio Beira-Rio • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 42% | Draw 29% | Gremio 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Internacional 1.30 / Gremio 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.813 / def 1.043 | Gremio attack 0.966 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Internacional (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Gremio xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Internacional vs Gremio FAQs
What time does Internacional vs Gremio kick off?
Internacional vs Gremio kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Gremio?
Internacional 0 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Internacional vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Beira-Rio.
What competition is Internacional vs Gremio part of?
Internacional vs Gremio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 11) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 42% chance of winning, Gremio a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Internacional and Gremio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Internacional vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Internacional's attack at 0.81x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Internacional's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Internacional's last 48 games and Gremio's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.50
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.34
1.04
Gremio xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Internacional vs Gremio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Internacional and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Internacional and 1.04 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Internacional come into this having played 76 games, going 29W 22D 25L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.24 PPG from 76 outings (25W 19D 32L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Internacional on 1.43 PPG, Gremio on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Internacional's home form reads 19W 11D 8L across their last 38 home games, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 0.87 points per game from their last 38 away games (7W 12D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Internacional are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
Internacional (Home) vs Gremio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Internacional
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Internacional vs Gremio Form FAQs
What form are Internacional and Gremio in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 29W 22D 25L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while Gremio have gone 25W 19D 32L in their last 76 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Gremio away?
Internacional's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.79 PPG; Gremio away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Internacional's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Internacional
4
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Internacional vs Gremio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Gremio?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Internacional have won 4, Gremio have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Gremio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Gremio 1-1 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Gremio?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 58%, Gremio 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Internacional) and 45% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Gremio in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Internacional vs Gremio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Internacional and Gremio matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Internacional's games and 55% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Internacional and Gremio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Internacional's recent games and 45% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Gremio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Internacional's recent matches and 76% of Gremio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Internacional's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Beira-Rio, Regular Season - 11, as Internacional and Gremio drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.30 xG and Gremio 1.04 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Internacional fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Gremio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.81 / defence 1.04 against Gremio attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 42% | Draw 29% | Gremio 29%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 46%, Gremio 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.43 PPG, Gremio 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.