Internacional 1-3 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Internacional at 35%, yet in-form Flamengo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Internacional vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to face Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 August 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Internacional have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Flamengo are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Internacional lead 2W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Internacional goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Flamengo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 55% versus Flamengo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 43% | Flamengo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.00 xG and Flamengo 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.912 / defence 0.881 | Flamengo attack 0.992 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.117. Data: 56 Internacional games / 56 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 35% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 34%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Flamengo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Internacional 40% | Flamengo 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 35% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Internacional 1.00 / Flamengo 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.912 / def 0.881 | Flamengo attack 0.992 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Internacional (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Flamengo xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Flamengo kick off?
Internacional vs Flamengo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Flamengo?
Internacional 1 - 3 Flamengo.
Where is Internacional vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Flamengo part of?
Internacional vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 35% chance of winning, Flamengo a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Internacional and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Flamengo?
Record (7 meetings): Internacional 2W | Draws 4 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Internacional and Flamengo in?
Internacional (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Internacional's attack at 0.91x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (0.99x) against Internacional's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.22
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Internacional xG
Total xG
1.98
0.98
Flamengo xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Internacional and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Internacional and 0.98 for Flamengo, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Internacional come into this having played 56 games, going 24W 17D 15L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.96 PPG from 56 outings (32W 14D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Internacional against 1.96 for Flamengo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Internacional's home form reads 14W 7D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.70 points per game from 27 outings (13W 7D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Internacional are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.68 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 24W 17D 15L in their last 56 games (1.59 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 32W 14D 10L in their last 56 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Flamengo away?
Internacional's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.81 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Internacional or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Flamengo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Internacional
6
Draws
2
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Internacional have won 2, Flamengo have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2026, when Internacional 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Flamengo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 52%, Flamengo 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Internacional) and 48% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Flamengo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Internacional's games and 59% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Internacional vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Internacional's recent games and 48% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Flamengo tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Internacional.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Internacional 1-3 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.00 xG and Flamengo 0.98 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.91 / defence 0.88 against Flamengo attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 35% | Draw 31% | Flamengo 34%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 43%, Flamengo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.59 PPG, Flamengo 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.