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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gremio cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vitoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio beat Vitoria 3-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.29 xG and Vitoria 0.61 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.72 / defence 0.91 against Vitoria attack 0.64 / defence 1.31, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 53% | Draw 29% | Vitoria 18%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 40%, Vitoria 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Vitoria's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gremio 1.19 PPG, Vitoria 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Vitoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights