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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Sun 28 Sep 2025

15:00

Venue

Arena do Grêmio

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Gremio Win

53%

Gremio

1.88

29%

Draw

3.43

18%

Vitoria

5.69

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

19.2%

Home win

Most likely

0 – 0

14.9%

Draw

2 – 0

12.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.29

Gremio xG

Total xG

1.91

0.61

Vitoria xG

53%
29%
18%
GremioDrawVitoria

1.88

53%

Home win

3.43

29%

Draw

5.69

18%

Away win

Goals Markets

57%

Over 1.5

1.75

43%

Under 1.5

2.33

30%

Over 2.5

3.33

70%

Under 2.5

1.43

13%

Over 3.5

7.69

87%

Under 3.5

1.15

4%

Over 4.5

25.00

96%

Under 4.5

1.04

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

33%

BTTS Yes

3.01

67%

BTTS No

1.50

Clean Sheet

54%

Gremio

1.84

27%

Vitoria

3.65

Win to Nil

29%

Gremio

3.46

5%

Vitoria

20.76

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.9 9.1 2.8 0.6 0.1
1 19.2 11.8 3.6 0.7 0.1
2 12.5 7.6 2.3 0.5 0.1
3 5.4 3.3 1.0 0.2
4 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.1
5 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.295
λ Away (xG) 0.612
Total xG 1.907
League avg home goals 1.367
League avg away goals 1.052
Gremio attack strength 0.721
Gremio defence strength 0.908
Vitoria attack strength 0.641
Vitoria defence strength 1.315
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 62