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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gremio cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vasco DA Gama.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio beat Vasco DA Gama 2-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.38 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.18 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.27 / defence 1.04, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 42% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 32%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 41%, Vasco DA Gama 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gremio 1.20 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights