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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gremio cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sao Paulo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio beat Sao Paulo 2-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.99 xG and Sao Paulo 0.96 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sao Paulo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Sao Paulo attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 35% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 33%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 40%, Sao Paulo 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Sao Paulo's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gremio 1.20 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights