🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Palmeiras 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio beat Palmeiras 3-2 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.25 xG and Palmeiras 0.99 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palmeiras outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.96 / defence 0.83 against Palmeiras attack 1.19 / defence 0.91, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 42% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 29%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 41%, Palmeiras 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Palmeiras's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Gremio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights