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Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Gremio 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Gremio 0-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.85 xG and Mirassol 0.97 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gremio fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.74 / defence 0.91 against Mirassol attack 0.99 / defence 0.84, drawn from 59/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 30% | Draw 33% | Mirassol 37%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 25%, Mirassol 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mirassol's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Mirassol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights