🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Gremio cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juventude.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio beat Juventude 3-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.60 xG and Juventude 0.65 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Juventude attack 0.75 / defence 1.27, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 60% | Draw 25% | Juventude 15%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 40%, Juventude 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Juventude's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gremio 1.21 PPG, Juventude 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights