Gremio 2-2 Juventude – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gremio at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Juventude meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 November 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gremio have posted 5W 1D 4L at Arena do Grêmio — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Juventude (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juventude's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gremio have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Juventude in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gremio, 2 for Juventude and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 0–3 with Juventude winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 46% versus Juventude 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 46% | Juventude 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.93 xG and Juventude 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.108 / defence 1.238 | Juventude attack 0.898 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.980. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Gremio games / 33 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 57% | Draw 22% | Juventude 21%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Juventude 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Gremio (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 60% | Juventude 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Nov 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 57% | Draw 22% | Juventude 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Gremio 1.93 / Juventude 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.108 / def 1.238 | Juventude attack 0.898 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.980 • Poisson stance: Gremio (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Juventude xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Juventude kick off?
Gremio vs Juventude kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 20 November 2024 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Juventude?
Gremio 2 - 2 Juventude.
Where is Gremio vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Juventude part of?
Gremio vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 57% chance of winning, Juventude a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gremio and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Juventude?
Record (3 meetings): Gremio 1W | Draws 0 | Juventude 2W.
What form are Gremio and Juventude in?
Gremio (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Juventude (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Gremio vs Juventude?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gremio's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.90x) against Gremio's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.55
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Gremio xG
Total xG
3.02
1.09
Juventude xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
3%
32.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Gremio and 1.09 for Juventude, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gremio come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 6D 16L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.12 PPG from 33 outings (9W 10D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Gremio against 1.12 for Juventude. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gremio's home form reads 8W 1D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.50 points per game from 16 outings (1W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 1.21 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude in 70%.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Juventude
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Juventude in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 11W 6D 16L in their last 33 games (1.18 PPG), while Juventude have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Juventude away?
Gremio's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.56 PPG; Juventude away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Gremio have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventude won 3-0 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gremio
1
Draws
2
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Gremio have won 3, Juventude have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Gremio 3-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Juventude?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 44%, Juventude 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gremio) and 50% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Gremio's games and 75% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gremio vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gremio's recent games and 50% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Juventude tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Juventude in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio and Juventude share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio and Juventude finished level at 2-2 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.93 xG and Juventude 1.09 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Juventude outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.11 / defence 1.24 against Juventude attack 0.90 / defence 1.30, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 57% | Draw 22% | Juventude 21%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 46%, Juventude 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Juventude's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.18 PPG, Juventude 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.