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Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Fortaleza EC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio beat Fortaleza EC 2-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.45 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.73 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.80 / defence 1.26, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 54% | Draw 27% | Fortaleza EC 19%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 42%, Fortaleza EC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gremio 1.17 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights