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Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat Gremio 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fluminense beat Gremio 1-2 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.43 xG and Fluminense 0.74 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fluminense outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against Fluminense attack 0.82 / defence 0.93, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 54% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 19%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 42%, Fluminense 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Fluminense's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gremio 1.23 PPG, Fluminense 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights