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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gremio.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Gremio 0-2 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.35 xG and Flamengo 1.28 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gremio fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.08 / defence 1.14 against Flamengo attack 1.24 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 35% | Draw 33% | Flamengo 32%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 55%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gremio 1.49 PPG, Flamengo 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights