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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Sun 13 Apr 2025

21:30

Venue

Arena do Grêmio

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Gremio Win

35%

Gremio

2.86

33%

Draw

3.00

32%

Flamengo

3.15

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.7%

Home win

0 – 1

9.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.35

Gremio xG

Total xG

2.63

1.28

Flamengo xG

35%
33%
32%
GremioDrawFlamengo

2.86

35%

Home win

3.00

33%

Draw

3.15

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.75

43%

BTTS No

2.33

Clean Sheet

28%

Gremio

3.60

26%

Flamengo

3.85

Win to Nil

10%

Gremio

10.30

8%

Flamengo

12.12

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.2 9.2 5.9 2.5 0.8 0.2
1 9.7 12.5 8.0 3.4 1.1 0.3
2 6.6 8.4 5.4 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 2.9 3.8 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.348
λ Away (xG) 1.280
Total xG 2.628
League avg home goals 1.424
League avg away goals 0.901
Gremio attack strength 1.081
Gremio defence strength 1.143
Flamengo attack strength 1.244
Flamengo defence strength 0.876
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 40 / 40