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Prediction vindicated as Cruzeiro edge out Gremio 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cruzeiro beat Gremio 0-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.82 xG and Cruzeiro 0.84 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gremio fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Cruzeiro attack 0.95 / defence 0.59, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 32% | Draw 35% | Cruzeiro 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cruzeiro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 41%, Cruzeiro 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cruzeiro's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Cruzeiro arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights