Gremio 1-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gremio face Coritiba.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gremio welcome Coritiba to Arena do Grêmio in Serie A (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 26 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gremio have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Gremio's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Gremio, 0 for Coritiba and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2023, ended Gremio 2–1 Coritiba — a Gremio win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.50 xG and Coritiba 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.010 / defence 0.949 | Coritiba attack 1.074 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.039. Data: built from Gremio's last 50 games and Coritiba's last 12.
Result probabilities: Gremio 47% | Draw 26% | Coritiba 26%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.12 | Draw 3.80 | Coritiba 3.78. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gremio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 47% | Draw 26% | Coritiba 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Gremio 1.50 / Coritiba 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.010 / def 0.949 | Coritiba attack 1.074 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Gremio (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Coritiba xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gremio vs Coritiba FAQs
What time does Gremio vs Coritiba kick off?
Gremio vs Coritiba kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Coritiba?
Gremio 1 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Gremio vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Coritiba part of?
Gremio vs Coritiba is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 47% chance of winning, Coritiba a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gremio and Coritiba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gremio vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gremio's attack at 1.01x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gremio's last 50 games and Coritiba's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.80
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.56
1.06
Coritiba xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gremio vs Coritiba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Gremio and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Gremio and 1.06 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Gremio (Home) vs Coritiba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gremio
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 26 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Gremio have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Jun 2023, when Gremio won Gremio 5-1 Coritiba.
Gremio's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Gremio
0
Draws
0
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Gremio vs Coritiba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Coritiba?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Gremio have won 4, Coritiba have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Coritiba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2026: Coritiba 0-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Coritiba?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Coritiba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Coritiba 1-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.50 xG and Coritiba 1.06 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coritiba landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.01 / defence 0.95 against Coritiba attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 47% | Draw 26% | Coritiba 26%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.