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Gremio and Corinthians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 12, as Gremio and Corinthians drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.30 xG and Corinthians 0.74 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Corinthians attack 0.85 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 49% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 20%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 55%, Corinthians 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gremio 1.49 PPG, Corinthians 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights