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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gremio and Botafogo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio and Botafogo finished level at 1-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.59 xG and Botafogo 1.15 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.69 / defence 0.90 against Botafogo attack 1.18 / defence 0.63, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 19% | Draw 32% | Botafogo 50%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 41%, Botafogo 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Botafogo's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights