Gremio vs Bahia – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gremio at 37%, yet in-form Bahia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gremio vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Bahia meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 19 November 2026 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gremio's home record at Arena do Grêmio: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bahia (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bahia are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gremio register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Bahia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Gremio, 4 for Bahia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Bahia — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 56% versus Bahia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 41% | Bahia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.40 xG and Bahia 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.989 / defence 1.081 | Bahia attack 1.090 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.120. Data: 71 Gremio games / 71 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 37% | Draw 30% | Bahia 34%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Bahia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bahia (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 80% | Bahia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Nov 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 37% | Draw 30% | Bahia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Gremio 1.40 / Bahia 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.989 / def 1.081 | Bahia attack 1.090 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Gremio (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bahia xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Bahia kick off?
Gremio vs Bahia is scheduled to kick off at 00:30 on Thursday 19 November 2026 at Arena do Grêmio.
Where is Gremio vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Bahia part of?
Gremio vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 37% chance of winning, Bahia a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gremio and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
Record (9 meetings): Gremio 4W | Draws 1 | Bahia 4W.
What form are Gremio and Bahia in?
Gremio (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Bahia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gremio's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Bahia's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.09x) against Gremio's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.39
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.71
1.32
Bahia xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Gremio and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Gremio and 1.32 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 22W 20D 29L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Bahia's form line: 31W 20D 20L from 71 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Gremio against 1.59 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.66 PPG from 35 outings (16W 10D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bahia have gone 9W 11D 15L from 35 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gremio are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.38 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Bahia in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 22W 20D 29L in their last 71 games (1.21 PPG), while Bahia have gone 31W 20D 20L in their last 71 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Bahia away?
Gremio's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.66 PPG; Bahia away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Gremio or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bahia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Gremio
1
Draws
4
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 4, Bahia have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 57%, Bahia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Gremio) and 51% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Bahia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Bahia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Gremio's games and 57% of Bahia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gremio vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gremio's recent games and 51% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Bahia tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Bahia in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.