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Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Bahia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gremio beat Bahia 1-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.27 xG and Bahia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bahia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Bahia attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gremio 41% | Draw 33% | Bahia 26%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 55%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gremio 1.49 PPG, Bahia 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights