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Vasco DA Gama cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fortaleza EC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama beat Fortaleza EC 0-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.23 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.59 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.79 / defence 1.19 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.29 / defence 1.09, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 30% | Draw 25% | Vasco DA Gama 46%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 48%, Vasco DA Gama 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.44 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights