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Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Sport Recife 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortaleza EC beat Sport Recife 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.47 xG and Sport Recife 0.94 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sport Recife landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Sport Recife attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 49% | Draw 26% | Sport Recife 24%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 54%, Sport Recife 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Sport Recife's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 0.68 PPG, Sport Recife 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights