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Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Fortaleza EC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Fortaleza EC 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.27 xG and Mirassol 1.57 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortaleza EC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.04 / defence 1.34 against Mirassol attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 57/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 31% | Draw 25% | Mirassol 44%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 56%, Mirassol 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mirassol's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Mirassol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights