Fortaleza EC 0-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mirassol at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC and Mirassol meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 August 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortaleza EC's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza EC have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Mirassol (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.11 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Mirassol are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Fortaleza EC 0W, Mirassol 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fortaleza EC — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Mirassol — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortaleza EC 50% and Mirassol 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 56% | Mirassol 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.27 xG and Mirassol 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.038 / defence 1.345 | Mirassol attack 1.042 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.118. Data: 57 Fortaleza EC games / 18 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 31% | Draw 25% | Mirassol 44%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Mirassol 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 40% | Mirassol 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 31% | Draw 25% | Mirassol 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.27 / Mirassol 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.038 / def 1.345 | Mirassol attack 1.042 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Mirassol xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 31% chance of winning, Mirassol a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Mirassol?
Record (1 meetings): Fortaleza EC 0W | Draws 1 | Mirassol 0W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Mirassol in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Mirassol (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.04) and Mirassol's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (1.04x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 57/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
31%
3.25
25%
3.98
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.84
1.57
Mirassol xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
6%
15.55
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.57 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortaleza EC come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 6D 10L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (7W 8D 3L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fortaleza EC's home form reads 2W 2D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (2W 4D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortaleza EC are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.61 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 2W 6D 10L in their last 18 games (0.67 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 7W 8D 3L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Mirassol away?
Mirassol's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 0.89 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
1
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Mirassol?
From 2 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 0, Mirassol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Fortaleza EC 0-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 44%, Mirassol 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fortaleza EC) and 33% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Mirassol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Fortaleza EC's games and 67% of Mirassol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 33% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Mirassol tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Fortaleza EC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Fortaleza EC 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.27 xG and Mirassol 1.57 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortaleza EC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.04 / defence 1.34 against Mirassol attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 57/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 31% | Draw 25% | Mirassol 44%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 56%, Mirassol 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mirassol's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Mirassol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.