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Stalemate at Fortaleza EC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 3, as Fortaleza EC and Internacional drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.51 xG and Internacional 0.78 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.14 / defence 0.80 against Internacional attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 51% | Draw 33% | Internacional 16%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 46%, Internacional 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.61 PPG, Internacional 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights