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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fortaleza EC and Gremio share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortaleza EC and Gremio finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.23 xG and Gremio 1.03 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gremio outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against Gremio attack 0.94 / defence 1.17, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 28% | Gremio 31%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 45%, Gremio 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Gremio's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.41 PPG, Gremio 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights