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Cruzeiro cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fortaleza EC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cruzeiro beat Fortaleza EC 0-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.58 xG and Cruzeiro 0.79 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Cruzeiro outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.19 / defence 0.81 against Cruzeiro attack 1.16 / defence 0.98, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 55% | Draw 28% | Cruzeiro 17%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Cruzeiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 46%, Cruzeiro 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.61 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights