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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Corinthians 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortaleza EC beat Corinthians 2-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.23 xG and Corinthians 0.95 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Corinthians attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 43% | Draw 29% | Corinthians 29%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 46%, Corinthians 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Corinthians's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.46 PPG, Corinthians 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights