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Shock result as Ceara defy the odds to beat Fortaleza EC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ceara beat Fortaleza EC 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.71 xG and Ceara 0.97 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortaleza EC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Ceara attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 50/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 54% | Draw 25% | Ceara 21%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Ceara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 54%, Ceara 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ceara's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Ceara arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Ceara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights