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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Fortaleza EC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Fortaleza EC 0-5 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 0.88 xG and Botafogo 0.95 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Botafogo outscored their 0.95 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.10 / defence 1.09 against Botafogo attack 0.91 / defence 0.62, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 31% | Draw 34% | Botafogo 35%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 46%, Botafogo 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Botafogo's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights